Derek Jones from The Shape of Code
The book The Weirdest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous provides an explanation of the processes which weakened the existing social ties of family and tribe; however, the emergence of WEIRD people (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic) required new social norms to spread and be accepted throughout society. A major technical innovation, in the form of the printing press, provided the means for mass communication of ideas and practices.
David High-Jones’ book Wyclif’s Dust: Western Cultures from the Printing Press to the Present describes the social consequences of what he calls book religion; a combination of deeply religious western societies and the ability of individuals to write and sell affordable books (made possible by the printing press). Religion+printing press created the conditions for what High-Jones calls a hothouse culture, a period from the 1600s to the end of the 1800s.
Around 1440 the printing press is invented and quickly spreads; around 5 million books were handwritten in the 1400s, about 80 million books were produced in the first 50 years of printing, and around a billion in the 1700s. During the 1500s the Protestant reformation happens; Protestant encouraged its followers to read the Bible, which creates a demand for printed Bibles and the need to be able to read (which increases literacy rates). In England, between 1480-1640, 40% of published books were religious.
The changes to society’s existing norms are wrought by cultural transmission, initially via middle class parents making use of edifying books to teach their children moral values and social skills, later Sunday schools took on this role, but also had to offer reading lessons to attract members. In the adult world, accepted norms were maintained by social enforcement. The impact on western societies was widespread because observant religious behavior was widespread.
The original intent, of those writing the religious books, was the creation of a god fearing society. In practice, a trust based society was created, where workers might be relied upon not to shirk their duties and businessmen to not renege on agreements.
In the beginning science, in the form of printed technical books, rarely made an appearance. In the 1700s the Enlightenment happens, and scientific books are discussed by small collections of disparate individuals. The industrial revolution happens, but the bulk of the demand is for trustworthy workers; technical and scientific know how remains a minority interest.
In Part I of the book, High-Jones weaves a reading and convincing narrative. Part II, 1900 to today, is a tale of the crumbling and breakdown of the social forces and incentives that creates the trust based society; while example are enumerated, no overarching theory is proposed (I skimmed this part).
, where 
is the number of tasks waiting a given amount of time; the 
, and red line a fitted regression model having the form 
(which explains just over 70% of the variance; 
, with 
varying between 0.65 and 1.57; more than a factor of two difference between subjects (this model explains just under 90% of the variance). This is a smaller range than the software estimation data, but with only six subjects there was less chance of a wider variation (
, where 
is a constant that varies between projects, often explains around 50% of the variance present in the data. This equation shows that developers under-estimate short tasks and over-estimate long tasks. The exponent, 
, applies across most projects in the data,
. What is the probability of the statement on the next line being a 
