Derek Jones from The Shape of Code
Effort estimation is an important component of any project, software or otherwise. While effort estimation is something that everybody in industry is involved with on a regular basis, it is a niche topic in software engineering research. The problem is researcher attitude (e.g., they are unwilling to venture into the wilds of industry), which has stopped them acquiring the estimation data needed to build realistic models. A few intrepid people have risked an assault on their ego and talked to people in industry, the outcome has been, until very recently, a small collection of tiny estimation datasets.
In a research context the term effort estimation is actually a hang over from the 1970s; effort correction more accurately describes the behavior of most models since the 1990s. In the 1970s models took various quantities (e.g., estimated lines of code) and calculated an effort estimate. Later models have included an estimate as input to the model, producing a corrected estimate as output. For the sake of appearances I will use existing terminology.
Which effort estimation datasets do researchers tend to use?
A 2012 review of datasets used for effort estimation using machine learning between 1991-2010, found that the top three were: Desharnias with 24 papers (29%), COCOMO with 19 papers (23%) and ISBSG with 17. A 2019 review of datasets used for effort estimation using machine learning between 1991 and 2017, found the top three to be NASA with 17 papers (23%), the COCOMO data and ISBSG were joint second with 16 papers (21%), and Desharnais was third with 14. The 2012 review included more sources in its search than the 2019 review, and subjectively your author has noticed a greater use of the NASA dataset over the last five years or so.
How large are these datasets that have attracted so many research papers?
The NASA dataset contains 93 rows (that is not a typo, there is no power-of-ten missing), COCOMO 63 rows, Desharnais 81 rows, and ISBSG is licensed by the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (academics can apply for a limited time use for research purposes, i.e., not pay the $3,000 annual subscription). The China dataset contains 499 rows, and is sometimes used (there is no mention of a supercomputer being required for this amount of data ;-).
Why are researchers involved in software effort estimation feeding tiny datasets from the 1990s into machine learning algorithms?
Grant money. Research projects are more likely to be funded if they use a trendy technique, and for the last decade machine learning has been the trendiest technique in software engineering research. What data is available to learn from? Those estimation datasets that were flogged to death in the 1990s using non-machine learning techniques, e.g., regression.
Use of machine learning also has the advantage of not needing to know anything about the details of estimating software effort. Everything can be reduced to a discussion of the machine learning algorithms, with performance judged by a chosen error metric. Nobody actually looks at the predicted estimates to discover that the models are essentially producing the same answer, e.g., one learner predicts 43 months, 2 weeks, 4 days, 6 hours, 47 minutes and 11 seconds, while a ‘better’ fitting one predicts 43 months, 2 weeks, 2 days, 6 hours, 27 minutes and 51 seconds.
How many ways are there to do machine learning on datasets containing less than 100 rows?
A paper from 2012 evaluated the possibilities using 9-learners times 10 data-prerocessing options (e.g., log transform or discretization) times 7-error estimation metrics giving 630 possible final models; they picked the top 10 performers.
This 2012 study has not stopped researchers continuing to twiddle away on the option’s nobs available to them; anything to keep the paper mills running.
To quote the authors of one review paper: “Unfortunately, we found that very few papers (including most of our own) paid any attention at all to properties of the data set.”
Agile techniques are widely used these days, and datasets from the 1990s are not applicable. What datasets do researchers use to build Agile effort estimation models?
A 2020 review of Agile development effort estimation found 73 papers. The most popular data set, containing 21 rows, was used by nine papers. Three papers used simulated data! At least some authors were going out and finding data, even if it contains fewer rows than the NASA dataset.
As researchers in business schools have shown, large datasets can be obtained from industry; ISBSG actively solicits data from industry and now has data on 9,500+ projects (as far as I can tell a small amount for each project, but that is still a lot of projects).
Are there any estimates on Github? Some Open source projects use JIRA, which includes support for making estimates. Some story point estimates can be found on Github, but the actuals are missing.
A handful of researchers have obtained and released estimation datasets containing thousands of rows, e.g., the SiP dataset contains 10,100 rows and the CESAW dataset contains over 40,000 rows. These datasets are generally ignored, perhaps because when presented with lots of real data researchers have no idea what to do with it.